Four-year cycles have historically defined Bitcoin’s market behaviour, usually led by halving events and a price increase. Many observers now see indications that Bitcoin’s Stable is moving into the acceleration phase of a new bull market as the most recent halving in 2024 disappears from view. An increasing number of analysts point to a possible price peak near $175,000 – a figure anchored not on speculation but in historical trends, technical signals, and important Exponential Moving Average (EMA) patterns presently returning.
During past market cycles, EMA indicators have shown shockingly great accuracy. Historically, strong upward momentum has come from the 21-week EMA crossing over the 50-week EMA. Sometimes known as the “golden EMA cross, this crossing foresaw the bull runs of 2017 and 2021. This trend has returned as of Q2 2025, and its reemergence has sparked forecasts of a possible top forming at hitherto unheard-of heights.
Bitcoin Bullish Momentum from EMA Crossovers
The 21-week, 50-week, and 200-week EMAs are particularly significant for long-term Bitcoin investors and traders. These markers enable one to spot investor behaviour and market patterns over time. The 50- and 200-week EMAs assist in establishing long-term trend direction, while the 21-week EMA represents short-to-mid-term momentum.
The 21-week EMA has lately achieved a notable upward crossover that fits the pattern seen in Bitcoin’s prior major bull phases. When this kind of crossover has happened, it has usually followed significant price swings, occasionally resulting in more than a three-hundred-per-cent price rise. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s price is above the 21- and 50-week EMAs, a classic bullish indication implying accumulation is underway. Usually indicating strength, this consolidation above critical support zones results in breakout movements as market confidence rises.
Bitcoin Cycles Signal $175K Price Target.
The price cycles of Bitcoin have been relatively consistent. Following every halving, which lowers the amount of freshly created BTC, has been a 12– to 18-month surge. Usually, demand surpasses supply in these stages, which causes a sharp price rise. 2013, 2017, and 2021 have seen this; all indications indicate a repeat in 2025. Currently projecting a top between $150K and $200K, cycle-based models, including PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) and logarithmic regression bands, find $175K as a key convergence point among analysts. Furthermore, on-chain metrics like the MVRV ratio (market value to realised value) and the Puell Multiple flash positive signs, indicating that Bitcoin is still undervalued relative to past cycle highs.
Glassnode, a blockchain analytics company, recently noted rising activity among long-term holders, usually before significant market swings. The percentage of Bitcoin kept in self-custody wallets is at an all-time high, while exchange outflows have surged. These indicators point to investors getting ready for an upward long-term migration.
Institutions Drive Bitcoin’s Global Bull Run
Unlike past cycles, this bull run is being formed with notable institutional involvement. Financial behemoths like BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK Invest have introduced Bitcoin ETFS, increasing BTC’s availability to conventional investors. This flood of institutional money has sharpened the market and raised liquidity. Moreover, Bitcoin’s interaction with traditional assets is deteriorating once more. As central banks worldwide change their monetary policies and the U.S. Federal Reserve signals a possible rate reduction, Bitcoin becomes increasingly appealing as a macro hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.
With rising inflation and capital restrictions, countries like Argentina and Turkey have also witnessed more Bitcoin adoption, enhancing the worldwide use of this distributed store of value.
Market Sentiment Signals Mid-Bull Phase
Another vital element determining Bitcoin’s path is market attitude. Without the speculative frenzy at past cycle tops, tools like Santiment and LunarCrush consistently increase social volume and engagement. This suggests that the market has not yet become overheated despite rising interest.
Data on chains supports this. Metrics like “Realised Cap” and “Coin Days Destroyed” point to younger people still joining the market at a measured rate, while long-term holders seem to be keeping their conviction. Usually far from the exuberance defined by a cycle peak, these characteristics represent the intermediate portion of a bull run.
Regulatory Risks and Volatility Remain Ahead
Even with the excellent technical and basic setup, there are still concerns. A significant hazard is regulatory uncertainty, particularly in the United States. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has not provided thorough clarity on categorizing different Cryptocurrencies that Could Be Banned; hence, any surprising decision could undermine investor confidence.
Technical corrections are also somewhat frequent on parabolic motions. Traders should know about overbought RSI indications and possible pullbacks to significant EMA levels. Although the macro trend is still positive, short-term volatility will probably exist as the market keeps rising.
Final thoughts
Those wishing to benefit from the next leg up must approach their task methodically. One of the best techniques still is dollar-cost averaging, particularly in an erratic market. Using tools like TradingView for technical analysis and CryptoQuant for on-chain data, investors can negotiate market circumstances with more assurance.
Another piece of advice is portfolio diversification. Although Bitcoin is the main emphasis, during some parts of the market cycle, altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Avalanche (AVAX), could present higher gains. Many of these assets also exhibit comparable EMA-based trends, which offer more trading chances.
