Bitcoin Volatility Outlook suggests a challenging Christmas week as BTC/USD struggles to maintain support below $100,000, leaving traders anxious about potential price drops. As support declines, Bitcoin begins Christmas week in a weak position, and experts predict a significant drop could occur. A “bearish engulfing” pattern on weekly charts makes traders anxious about the short-term future of BTC/USD.
Potential targets for a more significant drop include a return to about $74,000, near the previous all-time high. A quiet macro week primarily focuses on US job data, yet last week’s tough Fed meeting continues to impact markets. According to data from a specific indicator, those looking to invest in BTC for the long term have their first chance to buy in two months. The mood in the crypto market is deteriorating, but “greed” remains dominant.
Bitcoin Battles Volatility
Bitcoin battled over $90,000 last week. Markets Pro and Trading View show that BTC/USD is down $13,000 from last week’s highs, signaling price volatility. Analysts and capital traders confirmed a weekly Bitcoin chart with a bearish engulfing candlestick, ending a five-week rally. $74,000 may hit record levels in 2 weeks. Edwards projected “a few more weeks of struggle.” Trader Jelle thinks bull market pullbacks average -30%. Edwards hoped momentarily. The S&P 500 normally does well on 26th. He told his X followers Carson the 26th returned the most.
Bitcoin’s Liquidity Crunch
More extended periods of “out-of-hours” trading during the holidays complicate matters for those trading in the crypto market. Moving up or down can be more challenging when the workday liquidity profile is unavailable. Trader and analyst Mark Cullen now identifies two critical levels to monitor until 2025. He makes these predictions based on a comprehensive analysis of the trading landscape on exchanges. One will be detrimental for the bulls. He summarized on X, along with data from tracking resources, that liquidity is stacked up like presents under the Christmas tree at 115k and sub-80k.
The chart below shows two points where many would sell their stocks if the spot price reached those levels. On the other hand, a drop to $80,000 would be a typical bull market decline based on past BTC price trends. According to btcnewz, 20% or more drops have marked Bitcoin’s rise to all-time highs. An on-chain analytics company stated that this cycle has been less volatile than others. “The most significant drop this cycle was -32% on August 5, 2024. Most corrections were only -25% below local highs, which indicates rising institutional interest and demand for spot ETFs.
Bitcoin Faces Uncertainty
Without macroeconomic data, risk assets won’t collapse this week. December begins with 26 US jobless claims. This year, cryptocurrency markets were poor. Foggy. The Fed reduced rates by 0.25% last week, as predicted. 2025 is “hawkish.” Crypto/BTC is gone. Market uncertainty reduces liquidity. Due to a historical gap between Bitcoin values and money in circulation, Kobeissi Letter business journal predicts a $20,000 decrease in the next weeks. According to btcnewz, Kobeissi predicts asset volatility and a Bitcoin catastrophe in January.
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Summary
Bitcoin traders face a Volatile Outlook as support weakens and BTC/USD drops below $100,000. A “bearish engulfing” pattern on weekly charts has intensified concerns, highlighting the uncertain Outlook for the short-term future of BTC/USD. Potential targets for a more significant drop include reaching $74,000, near the previous all-time high. The crypto market is worsening, but “greed” is still dominant. BTC/USD is down $13,000 from last week’s highs, indicating price volatility.
Longer “out-of-hours” trading times during the holidays make it more difficult for crypto traders to operate. Trader Mark Cullen sees two critical levels to watch through 2025: 115k and sub-80k. Drops of 20% or more have marked Bitcoin’s rise to all-time highs, but the market is uncertain due to macroeconomic data, US unemployment claims, and the Fed’s 0.25% rate cut.
